Anew analysis by the United Nations Environment Programme warns that the world is still far from meeting its climate goals, despite countries updating their national climate pledges. The Emissions Gap Report 2025: Off Target shows that the latest Nationally Determined Contributions under the Paris Agreement have resulted in only limited progress. Current pledges, even if fully implemented, would lead to a global temperature rise of 2.3 to 2.5 degrees Celsius by the end of this century.
This is only a slight improvement from last year’s projected range of 2.6 to 2.8 degrees Celsius. The report notes that much of the apparent progress does not reflect real-world emission reductions. Instead, it stems from accounting changes and methodological updates. These adjustments mask the limited scale of concrete climate action being taken by countries.
The upcoming withdrawal of the United States from the Paris Agreement in January 2026 is expected to further offset some of these gains, adding back around 0.1°C to global warming projections. UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen said the global community has repeatedly fallen short of delivering on commitments made under the Paris Agreement. She emphasized that although some progress has been made, it remains inadequate given the shrinking time frame available to prevent dangerous climate impacts.
Andersen called for rapid and unprecedented emission cuts, even as geopolitical challenges make cooperation more difficult. The report highlights two persistent problems: rising emissions and weak participation in the pledge process. Global greenhouse gas emissions increased by 2.3 per cent in 2024, reaching 57.7 gigatonnes o f c a r b o n d i o x i d e equivalent. This growth rate is significantly higher than the average annual increase during the 2010s.
Meanwhile, as of September 30, 2025, only 60 Parties to the Paris Agreement had submitted or announced updated climate plans for 2035. These countries represent just 63 per cent of global emissions. Even if existing pledges are achieved in full, global emissions in 2035 would fall by only 15 per cent compared with 2019 levels. To limit warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, emissions would need to be cut by 55 per cent by that year.
UNEP stresses that most nations are also struggling to meet their 2030 targets, revealing what it describes as a large implementation gap. The report concludes that current efforts remain far from sufficient, and that genuine progress will require stronger political will, rapid deployment of clean technologies, and more equitable international cooperation.