The holy month of Sawan is underway. Although the clouds that gather these days are raining less, they burst more. It is during this month that the arduous pilgrimage to Baba Barfani gains momentum, which has been interrupted for the second time due to bad weather. The sacred Char Dham pilgrimage is also on hold due to the weather. But in a month or so, the festival season is about to begin. Festivals are celebrated with enthusiasm by people from all walks of life and communities across the country. The joy and excitement of these festivals prevail during these times. The concern is how the common man will celebrate these festivals with gusto, as the economic climate is warning that an additional wave of inflation is about to rise in the country, hitting everyone’s pockets hard.
The first news is that the US Congress has passed the bill threatening to increase the tariffs imposed by the US on India’s purchase of oil from Russia by 100%. This doesn’t mean that the tariffs will increase immediately, but it does give the US President additional power to impose tariffs. While India may be concerned about the prices of petrol, diesel, and gas, edible oil prices are set to rise again before the festive season. Among edible oils, sunflower oil prices have risen by 6%. This will increase the demand for palm and soybean oil, leading to a sharp increase in their prices. Globally, El Niño weather will inevitably impact oil production and supply. In Indonesia and Malaysia, the increased use of palm oil in biofuels has also led to a rise in their prices.
Retail prices of mustard oil, soybean oil, palm oil and sunflower oil may become costlier by up to 12% in the coming months due to the traffic crisis in the Black Sea caused by the three-year-long Russia-Ukraine war. The supply of sunflower oil has been badly affected by this. Ships coming to India are arriving with a delay of 60 days. By creating a psychology of scarcity, hoarding has become rampant, which will definitely make edible oil expensive. These are the days of festivals, days of making dishes and sweets at home and outside, but the supply of oil has reduced.
Data shows that in the current year 2025-26, the import of edible oils in the country has decreased by 29 percent in June 2026 alone. Data shows that in May 2026, 13.39 lakh tons of edible oil was imported, which decreased to 11.11 lakh tons in June. Palm oil imports decreased by 10.5 percent to 4.87 lakh tons. Soybean oil imports decreased by 23 percent to 3.81 lakh tons.
Meanwhile, due to El Niño, a weak monsoon has occurred. We were pursuing an oilseed revolution, but this time, oilseeds have been sown on only 163.54 lakh hectares, a decrease of 3.45 percent. Who would have imagined cultivating oil on 200 lakh hectares? Now, if sowing has decreased, production will inevitably decline. In such a situation, will we import more? Expensive imports will only increase inflation during the festivals. The only solution is for Indian importers to turn to new countries.
We are increasing soybean oil imports from South American countries like Argentina, Australia, and Brazil. Palm oil imports have also increased by 40 percent in July, but these measures will not eliminate inflation. We will have to celebrate these festivals while facing the brunt of even higher inflation.
Festive Season About to Bring Wave of Inflation
