As bombs fall and diplomacy fails, the crisis in West Asia—particularly between Iran and Israel—has reached a tipping point. No longer is this a local skirmish or a regional rivalry. This is now a full-scale geopolitical earthquake that threatens to redraw alliances, destabilize markets, and ignite a war with global consequences. The time for quiet diplomacy and cautious statements has passed.
The European Union, China, and Russia— three global powers with both influence and interest in regional stability—must act decisively. The world is on the edge of a dangerous precipice. The Israel-Iran conflict is not merely a continuation of past tensions; it is now embedded in a broader strategic chessboard involving oil corridors, nuclear threats, religious extremism, and superpower realignments.
Silence and neutrality, at this point, amount to complicity The Strategic Context The current Israel-Iran escalation is not an isolated explosion of violence; it is the cumulative outcome of years of cyber warfare, proxy battles in Syria and Iraq, economic strangulation via sanctions, and ideological hostility. But this time, the intensity is unprecedented.
Israel’s pre-emptive strikes and Iran’s retaliatory precision drone attacks represent a dangerous new threshold. And unlike previous decades, Iran is no longer diplomatically isolated. It is supported— albeit indirectly—by China, Russia, and increasingly by voices in the Global South.
Iran’s integration into China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), its entry into BRICS, and its growing military cooperation with Moscow in the wake of the Ukraine war point toward a strategic recalibration that the West can no longer ignore.
Israel, backed implicitly by the U.S. and bolstered by its advanced military technologies, continues to pursue aggressive deterrence Strategies. However, this has now become a self-perpetuating cycle. Iran is not Iraq, nor Syria. It is a regional power with vast proxy capabilities, missile systems, and a nuclear ambition that, if pushed too far, could be fully realised.
Why the EU Must Intervene—Now:
Europe, already reeling from the Ukraine crisis, cannot afford another war that disrupts global energy flows and unleashes a new wave of refugees. The IranIsrael tension threatens the Strait of Hormuz—a vital artery through which nearly 20% of the world’s oil passes.
Any disruption there would send global oil prices soaring, crippling European economies already struggling with inflation and energy shortages.
Furthermore, Europe must wake up to a moral responsibility. Having historically played a role in shaping the Middle East through colonial legacy and post-WWII power structures, the EU cannot now pretend to be a neutral observer.
Brussels must mobilize an emergency diplomatic initiative that includes both Tehran and Tel Aviv, offering not only mediation but conditional economic packages and security guarantees.
This is not appeasement; it is containment. And containment is the only sane alternative to a regional war that could easily drag in global superpowers.
China’s Calculated Interests—But Crucial Leverage:
China has quietly but strategically embedded itself into the Middle Eastern landscape—not with missiles, but with money. Beijing is now the largest trading partner of many Gulf states and a key player in Iran’s economic survival.
The landmark IranChina 25-Year Cooperation Agreement, which promises $400 billion in investment, is not merely an economic lifeline; it is geopolitical insurance.
China has every reason to prevent war in West Asia. Its energy security, BRI trade corridors, and global stability depend on it. Moreover, the recent success of Beijing’s quiet diplomacy in brokering a Saudi-Iran détente shows that China has credibility where the U.S. does not. It is now time for China to act not just as an economic partner but as a responsible global power.
It must pressure both sides—especially Israel through backchannel contacts with the U.S.—to step back from the brink. If Beijing wants to shape the future global order, here is its chance to demonstrate real power: not by force, but by restraint.
Russia’s Role: More than Just a Side Show:
Though deeply entrenched in the Ukraine conflict, Russia has a critical card to play. Moscow and Tehran have grown closer in recent years, bound by mutual sanctions, arms deals (including the transfer of Iranian drones to Russia), and anti-Western sentiment. Russia’s influence over Iran is more real than symbolic.
And while Moscow has its hands full in Eastern Europe, it has every strategic reason to prevent a second NATO-supported warfront near its southern border. A broader conflict in West Asia would give the U.S. and its allies the excuse to escalate their military presence in the region—something Russia has always opposed.
Furthermore, Russia holds sway over Syria—a key staging ground for Iran’s proxy networks—and can be instrumental in de-escalating tensions there. Putin, despite his global isolation, retains channels of communication with both Tehran and Tel Aviv. This triad diplomacy could be Moscow’s chance to reassert itself as a global mediator, much like its Cold War predecessors once did.
India: Collateral Shockwaves from West Asia’s Firestorm:
For India, the Israel-Iran escalation is not a distant conflict—it is a direct threat to its economic stability and strategic posture. With over 60% of India’s crude oil imports passing through the Strait of Hormuz, even a partial blockade or disruption could cripple India’s energy security, spike fuel prices, inflate import bills, and stall growth.
The Indian rupee would come under pressure, and domestic inflation could spiral, derailing recovery efforts post-COVID. Strategically, India faces a dual dilemma: balancing its historical ties with Iran (including access to the Chabahar Port) while maintaining robust defense and technology relations with Israel.
Moreover, a wider conflict could endanger the lives of over eight million Indian expatriates across the Gulf—most of whom are crucial to the $100+ billion in annual remittances. Any miscalculation or prolonged instability could pull India into a complex web of evacuations, economic shocks, and diplomatic recalibration.
In short, India cannot afford to remain a passive observer. Its strategic autonomy and regional stature depend on its ability to navigate and influence this crisis before the firestorm crosses its shores.
The Dangerous Side of War:
Should this crisis spiral into full-scale war, the consequences would be catastrophic. Here’s a glimpse of what the world risks:
1. Nuclear Escalation: Iran, cornered and attacked, may abandon all remaining commitments to the nuclear non-proliferation treaty (NPT) and accelerate weaponization. Israel, which has never officially confirmed its nuclear arsenal, might consider tactical strikes on suspected facilities. This is a doomsday scenario.
2. Proxy Chaos: Hezbollah in Lebanon, Houthis in Yemen, Shia militias in Iraq—all could open new fronts against Israeli and Western interests, igniting a multi-theatre war reminiscent of WWII but fought through asymmetric warfare.
3. Oil Apocalypse: The shutting down of the Strait of Hormuz would collapse global energy security. Even partial disruption would trigger a recession in fragile economies, deepen global inequality, and upend post-COVID recovery.
4. Terror Resurgence: With state attention diverted, groups like ISIS and Al-Qaeda could regroup in the chaos. The collapse of central control in war-torn zones always creates a vacuum for terrorism to flourish.
5. Humanitarian Crisis: Millions could be displaced. UN agencies already overwhelmed by Gaza, Ukraine, and Sudan will collapse under the weight of a full-scale refugee exodus from Iran, Iraq, Lebanon, and parts of Syria.
Time to Choose: Words or War
The Israel-Iran crisis has exposed a brutal truth: the architecture of global security is crumbling. The U.S. has lost credibility as a neutral arbiter. The UN has become a bureaucratic bystander.
If China, Russia, and the EU do not seize the moment, history will remember this silence as betrayal. It is time for a Strategic Realignment of Diplomacy. A tripartite initiative led by the EU, facilitated by China’s Middle East leverage, and supported by Russia’s regional entrenchment could force a ceasefire and initiate a roadmap for peace. This isn’t fantasy—it is necessity.
Conclusion
Redrawing the Lines of Power The crisis in West Asia is not just about Iran and Israel. It is about who gets to shape the world’s future: those who bomb or those who build. China, Russia, and the EU have the tools, the access, and the responsibility to stop the madness. They must now shed their hesitation and lead—not in competition with the West, but in defense of the world’s fragile peace. Let it not be said that while the world burned, those with power chose comfort over courage. The time to act is not tomorrow. It is now.
(By Prof. Dr. Nishakant Ojha – Internationally Acclaimed Expert in National Security, Foreign Affairs & Counterterrorism)