New Delhi: Concerns about inflation in the country appear to be growing among ordinary households. Indian households expect inflation to reach 10% in the next year, up from the 9.4% estimate made in July. This information was revealed in the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) September 2026 Inflation Expectations Survey of Households.
According to the RBI survey, the average inflation expectation of households for the next 12 months has increased by 60 basis points to 10%. Meanwhile, the inflation forecast for the next three months has increased by 70 basis points to 9.9%, from 9.2% in July.
Perceptions of current inflation also increased
According to the RBI, the current inflation perceived by households also increased in September. It increased by 60 basis points to 8.4% in September from 7.8% in July.
Concern about future price increases has also increased among those surveyed. 88.9% expect general price increases over the next year, while 67.4% believe prices could rise even faster than the current pace.
Regarding the next three months, 81.9% of households expected price increases, compared to 80.7% in July.
Concerns over food prices
Families remain concerned about food prices. 84.9% of those surveyed expected food prices to rise over the next three months.
Of the total, 61.6% believed food prices could rise at a faster rate than currently observed.
The RBI stated that the proportion of people expecting general inflation to rise has increased slightly for both three-month and one-year periods.
Inflation concerns rise amid RBI interest rate hike
Households’ rising inflation expectations come at a time when the RBI Monetary Policy Committee increased the repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.50% on October 7th. Monetary policy is being tightened to control inflation.
Increases in inflation expectations are considered important because they can impact future spending, cost of living, and wage expectations. Such data are also important indicators for monetary policy formulation.
However, the 10% figure revealed in the RBI survey represents the median inflation expectation of households. It should not be interpreted as the RBI’s official inflation forecast.
This survey was conducted between 10th to 20th September in 19 major cities of the country, in which a total of 5,987 people were included.