United Nations: The race to choose the next United Nations secretary-general remains uncertain, with the three leading candidates each facing opposition from two permanent members of the UN Security Council. With just 76 days left before Antonio Guterres is due to be succeeded, the deadlock could lead to fresh negotiations or the entry of new candidates.
In the sixth round of informal voting held on Friday, UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD) chief Rebecca Grynspan of Costa Rica led the field with nine positive votes. Former Guyana foreign minister Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett and International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director-General Rafael Grossi also emerged as leading contenders.
All three received two negative votes from permanent members, who hold veto powers in the Council. The results were leaked to UN-focused publications PassBlue and 1for8Billion, although the straw polls are meant to remain confidential.
Top Candidates Face Opposition
Grynspan received nine positive votes, five negative votes and one neutral vote. She has led five of the six straw polls held so far, with Rodrigues-Birkett taking the lead in the second round in August.
Rodrigues-Birkett and Grossi each received eight positive votes, six negative votes and one neutral vote. However, Rodrigues-Birkett secured three positive votes from permanent members, compared with two for Grossi.
The other candidates also faced resistance. Former UN under-secretary-general and Ugandan foreign minister Olara Otunnu, former Senegalese President Macky Sall, and former Ecuadorian foreign minister Maria Fernanda Espinosa each received three negative votes from permanent members. Former Ecuadorian ambassador to the United States Ivonne A-Baki received five.
The latest results could push the permanent members towards negotiations over a candidate who can secure sufficient support without facing a veto. New names could also enter the race if the current deadlock continues.
How the Secretary-General Is Chosen
The straw polls are designed to assess support for each candidate before the Security Council makes a formal recommendation. Members can vote to “encourage” a candidate, “discourage” them or express “no opinion”.
This was the first round in which colour-coded ballots distinguished votes cast by permanent members from those of elected members. The five earlier rounds did not make that distinction.
A candidate must secure at least nine votes in the 15-member Security Council and avoid a veto from any of its five permanent members to be recommended to the General Assembly. The General Assembly then appoints the secretary-general, generally following the Council’s recommendation.
The five permanent members are China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom and the United States.
US Position Could Shape the Outcome
The next secretary-general will take office at a time when the UN faces pressure to reform and respond to major international conflicts. The organisation has had nine male secretaries-general in its 80-year history, and there is strong international support for electing a woman to the position.
Latin America and the Caribbean are also seeking the post, which has not been held by someone from the region since Javier Perez de Cuellar of Peru completed his term in 1991.
Two names reportedly being considered as possible late entrants are Lana Nusseibeh, the United Arab Emirates minister of state for foreign affairs, and Feridun Hadi Sinirlioglu, the Turkish head of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe.
The United States could play a decisive role because of its veto power. Reports suggest Washington is dissatisfied with the current field and wants a candidate willing to pursue major UN reforms.
In July, Trump was reported to have floated the name of FIFA president Gianni Infantino. However, the Swiss football official’s possible candidacy was not taken seriously in the race.
With the leading candidates facing opposition from permanent members, the coming weeks are likely to be crucial in determining whether the Council can agree on a nominee or whether the search must widen.