- विज्ञापन -
A surge in the supply of critical minerals in 2024 has driven down prices, even as global demand continues to grow at a rapid pace, according to the Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2025 released on May 21, 2025. The report highlights that substantial increases in mineral production — especially from China, Indonesia, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) — have significantly impacted global prices, particularly for battery metals such as lithium, cobalt, and nickel. These supply increases, outpacing even strong demand growth, have caused prices for several key minerals to fall back to pre-pandemic levels. “The swift increase in battery metal production highlighted the sector’s ability to scale up new supply more quickly than for traditional metals like copper and zinc,” the report stated. Since 2020, the supply of battery metals has grown at nearly double the pace recorded in the late 2010s.
As a result, prices that had spiked during 2021–2022 have seen a dramatic correction. Lithium, for example, which had experienced an eightfold increase in price during that period, saw its value drop by more than 80 per cent since 2023. Prices for graphite, cobalt, and nickel also declined by 10 to 20 per cent in 2024. Despite the fall in prices, global demand for key energy minerals remains strong. In 2024, lithium demand alone rose by nearly 30 per cent — a sharp contrast to the 10 per cent annual growth seen in the previous decade.
Demand for other batteryrelated minerals such as nickel, cobalt, graphite, and rare earth elements grew by 6 to 8 per cent. The energy transition continues to be the primary driver of this demand surge. Electric vehicles, renewable energy technologies, battery storage systems, and power grid expansions are the main contributors. Notably, China’s massive investment in power grids has significantly boosted copper demand over the past two years. For battery metals, the energy sector accounted for 85 per cent of total demand growth during this period. While current supply levels appear stable, the report warns of growing vulnerabilities in global critical mineral supply chains due to increasing market concentration and new export controls. These emerging risks could threaten the reliability of future supply. Since 2023, an expanding number of countries have introduced export restrictions.
China, a major supplier of many critical minerals, imposed a series of controls in late 2024 on the export of gallium, germanium, and antimony — all key inputs for semiconductors. Further restrictions followed in 2025, covering tungsten, tellurium, bismuth, indium, molybdenum, and seven heavy rare earths. Additionally, the DRC temporarily halted cobalt exports for four months in early 2025 in an effort to stabilize falling prices. Currently, over half of all energy-related critical minerals are subject to some form of export control. Such measures not only affect the export of raw materials but increasingly target refined products and even processing technologies.
According to the report, if a major producing country’s output is disrupted — due to political, environmental, or technical reasons — global markets could face serious supply shocks. The analysis projects that for battery metals and rare earths, supply from countries outside the leading producer will only cover about half of the remaining demand by 2035. This concentration poses risks of price spikes and competitive disadvantages. A prolonged disruption in battery metal supply chains could increase global average battery pack prices by 40–50 per cent. The report cautions that such a scenario would widen the cost gap between Chinese battery manufacturers and those in other regions, undermining diversification efforts and industrial competitiveness worldwide.
