MVA faces existential crisis, Mahayuti betting big on consolidation

Mumbai: The Mahayuti alliance, consisting of the BJP, Shiv Sena, and NCP, achieved a significant victory in the recent Assembly elections, winning 236 seats and effectively countering anti-incumbency sentiments. This success can be attributed to their unified approach, meticulous planning—particularly by the BJP—with strong backing from the RSS, and the successful rollout of various welfare.

Mumbai: The Mahayuti alliance, consisting of the BJP, Shiv Sena, and NCP, achieved a significant victory in the recent Assembly elections, winning 236 seats and effectively countering anti-incumbency sentiments. This success can be attributed to their unified approach, meticulous planning—particularly by the BJP—with strong backing from the RSS, and the successful rollout of various welfare schemes like the Ladki Bahin Yojana. Their campaign effectively utilized slogans such as “Batenge To Katenge” and “Ek Hai To Safe Hai” to resonate with voters.

In stark contrast, the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA), which includes Congress, Shiv Sena UBT, and NCP-SP, suffered a heavy defeat after previously outpacing Mahayuti in the Lok Sabha elections. The MVA’s overconfidence and lack of a clear agenda to capitalize on anti-incumbency, combined with a failure to effectively promote their MahaLaxmi Scheme—which promised financial aid to women and unemployed youth—proved detrimental. Voters were more inclined to continue with the Mahayuti government’s established benefits rather than wait for new promises.

The MVA’s assumption that changes to the Constitution and the removal of reservation narratives would secure them a majority backfired. Instead, Mahayuti successfully framed the Congress and the INDIA bloc as anti-Constitution and anti-reservation, particularly resonating with marginalized communities. Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah strategically targeted the Congress, portraying them as divisive, which struck a chord with the electorate.

The BJP’s campaign also focused on consolidating Hindu votes, particularly among Hindu Dalits and OBCs, through extensive outreach and community meetings. This was crucial in countering the pro-Maratha sentiments stirred by activist Manoj Jarange-Patil, who had previously influenced MVA’s success. The BJP’s outreach to OBCs through various initiatives paid off, allowing them to gain significant support.

MVA, on the other hand, struggled to adapt its strategy in light of Mahayuti’s effective campaign. Internal conflicts and a lack of timely seat-sharing agreements weakened their position, while Congress’s failure to unify its factions and select viable candidates further undermined their efforts. High-profile Congress leaders, including Rahul Gandhi, did not engage sufficiently in campaigning, leading to poor performances in key constituencies.

Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena failed to capitalize on the sympathy garnered from the split in the party, and despite winning 10 seats in Mumbai, it faced challenges in its traditional strongholds. To remain relevant, Thackeray must strengthen grassroots connections and differentiate his party’s Hindutva stance from that of the BJP.

Sharad Pawar, who played a crucial role in maintaining MVA unity, could not halt the Mahayuti’s momentum. His nephew Ajit Pawar, who defected to Mahayuti, outperformed him by winning 41 seats. Despite the setback, Sharad Pawar is determined to rebuild his party’s base.

In summary, the MVA now confronts a critical situation, with blame shifting among its members for the electoral loss. There are calls within Shiv Sena UBT to contest future elections independently, although Congress and NCP(SP) have downplayed these suggestions. The MVA must energize its supporters ahead of local elections, while Mahayuti is well-positioned for consolidation in Maharashtra, with the BJP eyeing a substantial goal for the 2029 elections as outlined by Home Minister Amit Shah.