Bangladesh elections: Why China, Pakistan are backing Jamaat despite BNP’s surge

January 13, 2026

New Delhi:  Bangladesh’s elections just a month away, opinion polls indicate a clear lead for the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) led by Tarique Rahman, while Jamaat-e-Islami is expected to remain in Opposition. Despite this, both China and Pakistan continue to engage closely with the Jamaat, viewing it as a crucial political force even outside power. Officials say both countries see the Jamaat as a counterweight to India’s growing influence in Bangladesh. Indian agencies are closely tracking developments, especially after Chinese Ambassador to Bangladesh Yao Wen met Jamaat-e-Islami Ameer Shafiqur Rahman.

Beijing, Islamabad Seen Backing Jamaat to Check India

Security and intelligence officials believe that China and Pakistan consider the Jamaat capable of shaping events on the ground due to its organisational strength, street power and influence across institutions, including student unions, the police and the army. According to officials, the Jamaat has the ability to mobilise protests and create unrest, particularly when Indian investments or diplomatic initiatives are involved.
These developments come as India has stepped up engagement with the BNP leadership. External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar recently attended the funeral of BNP founder Khaleda Zia and delivered a condolence message from Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Officials say this attempted reset of ties has not gone down well with Beijing and Islamabad, which may look to use the Jamaat post-elections to maintain political volatility in Bangladesh.

Fears of Post-Poll Unrest, Impact on India’s Security

Intelligence inputs suggest that China and Pakistan want assurances from Jamaat leaders that any violence around the elections will not affect their investments, particularly those linked to Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative. At the same time, officials believe the Jamaat could be used to generate instability if BNP policies move closer to India.
A volatile Bangladesh, officials warn, would strain India’s border management and increase risks of infiltration and terror activity. With ties between India and Bangladesh reportedly at a low point under the current political environment, agencies fear continued efforts by anti-India forces to prevent post-election stability in the country.