Bumper maize harvest 

December 3, 2025

Zimbabwe’s claim of a bumper maize harvest has collapsed under the weight of its own numbers. The government announced a ban on maize imports in late August after reporting a 2.3 million metric tonne output for the 2024-25 season, more than triple the previous year’s drought-hit production. With national demand estimated between 1.8 and 2 million tonnes, officials argued the country had a comfortable surplus and should protect local farmers.

The Second Round of Crops, Livestock and Fisheries Assessment Report projected a surplus of up to 1.2 million tonnes, prompting authorities to shut the border to imports. Agriculture secretary Obert Jiri said the move was meant to ensure millers bought from domestic growers.

But within weeks, the narrative began to unravel. Blue Ribbon Foods, a major miller, shut its Bulawayo plant due to a severe shortage of maize. Other millers under the Grain Millers Association of Zimbabwe confirmed that grain was not available on the market. The crisis exposed deeper structural problems, including long-running delays by the Grain Marketing Board in paying farmers and a shift that now restricts GMB procurement mainly to government-financed farmers, leaving the rest to trade through the Zimbabwe Mercantile Exchange.

The government initially dismissed the shortages, accusing millers of seeking cheaper imports and claiming farmers had maize but were struggling to sell it due to new marketing rules. As supply tightened, officials shifted blame to alleged grain hoarding and changing consumption habits. Eventually, the state acknowledged the crisis and lifted the import ban.

A post-harvest survey released soon after showed a major discrepancy. The estimated 2.3 million tonnes of maize collapsed to an actual harvest of just 1.8 million tonnes. Of this, about 470,000 tonnes could not be fully accounted for, attributed to early consumption, sales, post-harvest losses and other variables. The data revealed a 23 per cent gap between pre-harvest estimates and final figures.

International assessments painted an even starker picture. The United States Department of Agriculture had earlier forecast production at around 1.3 million tonnes, a number that closely matched what could ultimately be traced in Zimbabwe’s final report.

Analysts say the crisis highlights a pattern of politically driven exaggeration. Socio-economic expert Rashweat Mukundu said production figures were inflated to project an image of economic recovery. He argued that politicisation of data had undermined planning and eroded trust, leaving citizens blindsided by a sudden food deficit.