Coal use peak in sight 

October 29, 2025

A new analysis by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) suggests that China, India, and Indonesia — the world’s three biggest coal power markets — are on track to see coal use and related emissions peak by 2030. The think tank has described this projection as a “global breakthrough” for climate action, marking the first time that all major coal-dependent economies could curb fossil fuel growth simultaneously.

Together, the three countries accounted for nearly 73 per cent of global coal consumption in 2024 and were the largest contributors to rising carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions since the Paris Agreement. CREA’s report said that if current trends continue, a structural shift could reshape global energy and emissions patterns, with major implications for coal exporters and climate policy worldwide.

According to CREA, China has already reached a turning point. The country’s clean energy growth has outpaced expectations, with its power sector emissions reportedly declining since early 2024. “China has added enough clean electricity generation to meet all new demand,” said CREA co-founder Lauri Myllyvirta. “While short-term fluctuations may occur, the momentum suggests a peak in coal power is imminent.”

In 2024, China added 277 gigawatts (GW) of solar capacity and another 212 GW in the first half of 2025. Wind capacity also expanded by over 80 GW last year and is expected to surpass 100 GW this year, making renewables the leading driver of emission reductions.

India is showing similar progress. CREA noted that the country is already halfway toward Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s target of 500 GW of non-fossil fuel capacity by 2030. Record renewable additions in 2024–25 and a rapidly expanding domestic solar manufacturing sector — now producing 118 GW of modules annually — are supporting this transition. “India’s clean electricity growth is finally accelerating,” said CREA analyst Manoj Kumar. “If this pace continues, India could peak coal power before 2030.”

Indonesia, under President Prabowo Subianto, has announced plans to install 100 GW of solar power by 2030, a move that could enable its own emissions peak. However, the country’s short-term energy plan continues to prioritise new coal and gas projects. CREA analyst Katherine Hasan cautioned that without firm implementation, Indonesia’s transition could stall.

While the clean energy surge positions all three nations to peak coal power use, CREA warned that post-2030 progress remains uncertain. Without firm plans for coal phase-downs, emissions could plateau instead of falling sharply, potentially locking in pollution equivalent to 500 large coal-fired plants by 2035.

Despite these risks, CREA highlighted strong political and economic drivers for renewables. With solar and battery costs down by over 50 per cent since 2022, clean energy has become cheaper than coal in many regions. If realised, this shift could place China, India, and Indonesia among emerging climate leaders ahead of the COP30 summit in Brazil.