COP of talk

December 2, 2025

Global expectations were once again high as leaders, negotiators and diplomats gathered in Belém for COP30, but the summit closed without delivering the scale of action demanded by the climate crisis. The warnings ahead of the meeting were stark. The World Meteorological Organization reported that 2025 is on course to become the second- or third-warmest year ever recorded, continuing an alarming streak of extreme heat. The UN Environment Programme’s Emissions Gap Report projected that the world is heading toward 2.8°C of warming and is likely to cross the 1.5°C threshold within the next decade. Scientists say crossing that limit will trigger rapidly intensifying climate impacts. Despite this, COP30 fell far short of what is required.

On November 22, the Brazilian presidency approved the Belém Political Package, which outlined a new mechanism for international cooperation on a just transition, broad language on tripling adaptation finance by 2035 and a work programme to examine climate finance supplied by developed nations under Article 9 of the Paris Agreement. However, the absence of any commitment to transition away from fossil fuels stood out. Brazil instead moved the discussion into a separate roadmap for future debate. A similar roadmap was introduced for ending deforestation. While the just transition mechanism was seen as a win for developing countries and civil society groups, the pledges on adaptation finance remain unclear.

Throughout the summit, the unity of the G77 and China was visible, but disagreements with some developed nations raised concerns over the credibility of the COP process. Several developed countries tried to portray major developing economies as obstacles to ambition, a move that deepened mistrust. Critics pointed out that such claims ignore the rapid expansion of clean technology in China and the fast-growing renewable capacity in India. The polarised environment made it difficult to build consensus, even as the need for cooperation grows more urgent.