Earth is warming faster 

November 18, 2025

Unpredictable and intense rainfall is now challenging conventional meteorology in India. This year, cloudburst-like downpours struck plains and urban centres, leaving meteorologists and residents alike in shock. Traditionally associated with hilly terrain, cloudbursts are defined as rainfall exceeding 100 mm in an hour over an area of 20 to 30 square kilometres. Yet in August and September 2025, multiple cities in India experienced rainfall levels exceeding this benchmark in unprecedented timeframes.

On August 30, Chennai witnessed extraordinary rainfall across its districts. Manali recorded 106 mm in an hour from 10 pm, followed by another 127 mm in the next hour. Nearby Wimco Nagar saw 157 mm, Korattur 137 mm, and New Manali 103 mm, with the city experiencing five cloudburst-like events within two hours. Just two days earlier, Kamareddy in Telangana recorded 576 mm of rain in 48 hours, marking its heaviest downpour in 35 years. In Maharashtra, rain-shadowed Nanded received 206 mm on August 17-18, while Kolkata recorded 251 mm between September 22 and 23, the highest for any September day in 39 years. Nearly 180 mm fell within three hours, including 98 mm in a single hour.

“These cloudbursts are unprecedented,” says Parthasarathi Mukhopadhyay, professor at IISER Berhampur. While India has faced exceptional rainfall before, such as the Mumbai floods of 2005 and Kerala floods of 2018, the frequency and intensity of events in 2025 are exceptional. Climate models have yet to capture such rapid, high-intensity rainfall in plains, which occur without the orographic lift that usually triggers cloudbursts in mountainous regions. Mukhopadhyay notes that for every 1°C rise in global temperature, atmospheric water vapour increases by 7 percent, intensifying the potential for extreme rainfall.

Recent events highlight two emerging trends. Climate change effects are appearing sooner and in regions not anticipated by models. Globally, these disruptions span ecosystems and planetary systems. The “Global Tipping Points 2025” report, released on October 16, warned that Earth has already crossed its first catastrophic climate threshold, evident in the widespread die-off of warm-water coral reefs. Tipping points, previously expected decades into the future, are arriving sooner, underscoring an urgent need to understand and adapt to a new climate reality.

India’s 2025 monsoon illustrates the growing unpredictability of weather systems, challenging assumptions about climate patterns and highlighting the immediate impacts of global warming on urban and rural landscapes alike.