A fragile calm of hope and hesitation in Gaza 

October 15, 2025

US President Donald Trump’s Gaza Peace Plan continues to hold, marking what he called “a historic dawn of a new Middle East.” The ceasefire between Israel and Hamas has led to the release of nearly two dozen living hostages and 2,000 Palestinian prisoners, but several unresolved issues now threaten the fragile peace.

Hostage bodies yet to be returned

Under the terms of the agreement, Hamas was required to hand over all captives taken during the 7 October 2023 attacks, including the bodies of those killed. However, the group has so far returned only four bodies — identified as Guy Illouz, Yossi Sharabi, Bipin Joshi, and Daniel Peretz — while the remains of about two dozen others are still missing.

The reason for Hamas’s noncompliance remains unclear. Some analysts suggest the group may have been unable to locate the remaining bodies before the deadline. Israel has expressed sharp dissatisfaction, warning Hamas to fulfill its obligations under the deal. An Israeli government spokesperson said the country “will not rest until all return to their families and to burial in Israel.” The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) confirmed that a task force will be established to recover missing remains, emphasizing that the delay in the handover breaches the ceasefire terms.

Israel’s phased troop withdrawal

The 20-point peace agreement, pushed forward by Washington, called for an immediate end to hostilities and a three-stage withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza. Israel has already pulled troops from key areas such as Gaza City and Khan Younis but continues to control roughly 53 percent of the territory, including Rafah and sections of the border.

The White House has stated that Israeli control will be reduced to 40 percent in the next stage and to 15 percent thereafter. A “security perimeter,” however, will remain until the region is deemed secure from renewed militant threats.

Hamas has voiced suspicion that Israel might launch a reinvasion once hostages are fully returned. The group agreed to the plan based largely on assurances from Trump, though skepticism remains about whether Israel will honor its complete withdrawal commitments.

Hamas and disarmament question

A central pillar of the Trump-brokered plan is the disarmament of Hamas. The agreement stipulates that Gaza must be demilitarized, with all weapons and militant infrastructure dismantled. Hamas members willing to surrender their arms are to be granted amnesty or safe passage to another country.

So far, Hamas has not agreed to this condition. The group insists it will disarm only after the creation of an independent Palestinian state. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has dismissed this stance, reiterating that disarmament is non-negotiable. “Hamas will disarm and Gaza will be demilitarised. If this can be achieved the easy way, all the better; if not, it will be achieved the hard way,” Netanyahu said shortly before approving the peace deal in his cabinet.

Governance of Gaza remains contentious

Perhaps the most complex issue is who will govern Gaza after the ceasefire. Under the Trump plan, a “Board of Peace” will oversee administration, with Palestinian technocrats handling day-to-day affairs. Trump has proposed co-chairing this board with former UK Prime Minister Tony Blair, and the panel will include international experts tasked with rebuilding Gaza’s institutions and infrastructure.

Both Trump and Netanyahu have stated that Hamas will play no role in the new administration. Instead, the plan envisions the Palestinian Authority (PA), led by Fatah, taking charge of governance. However, Netanyahu has previously opposed reinstating PA control, citing widespread unpopularity of its leader, Mahmoud Abbas.

Hamas has rejected exclusion from Gaza’s political future, insisting that it will remain part of a “unified Palestinian movement.” This disagreement poses a major obstacle to establishing stable governance in the region.

Peacekeeping and reconstruction efforts

The peace plan calls for the deployment of an international peacekeeping force of about 200 personnel, drawn from Arab countries including Egypt, Qatar, Turkey, and the United Arab Emirates. The mission will be supervised by the US military but will not include American troops on the ground.

Palestinian police trained by Egypt and Jordan are expected to assume local security duties as Israeli forces withdraw. The joint effort will monitor ceasefire compliance and protect the Gaza border from renewed violence.

The rebuilding of Gaza remains another monumental challenge. The World Bank estimates reconstruction costs at $53 billion (approximately Rs 4.71 lakh crore). Egypt, which hosted the latest peace summit in Cairo, will convene a three-day international conference to coordinate funding and technical support.

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, who attended the summit, has pledged $27 million (Rs 240 crore) toward rebuilding efforts and announced that the United Kingdom will host its own reconstruction summit soon.

The future of the Palestinian state

The establishment of a separate Palestinian state remains a key aspiration for Palestinians, yet the peace plan only acknowledges it as a “goal” rather than a guaranteed outcome. While global support for a two-state solution has grown, there is still no clear timeline or consensus on how this would be achieved.

Netanyahu has repeatedly opposed Palestinian statehood, calling it a “non-starter.” Hamas, meanwhile, continues to demand political recognition and a role in the governance structure.

A fragile peace ahead

The current calm in Gaza is fragile. Neither Netanyahu nor Hamas attended the Cairo summit, raising doubts about their commitment to implementing the next phases of the peace deal. Experts warn that unresolved issues — from missing hostages to disarmament and governance — could derail progress.

Trump, however, remains optimistic, telling the Israeli parliament that “the long and painful nightmare is finally over.” Yet for many in the region, the path toward lasting peace appears uncertain. The success of the Gaza Peace Plan will depend on whether both sides can move beyond mistrust and fulfill their promises under international supervision.

At present, the ceasefire holds, but the future of Gaza — and of the broader Middle East — hangs delicately in the balance.