Global agriculture strain

December 3, 2025

A new United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization report has warned that global agriculture will need to produce about 50 per cent more food, feed and fibre by 2050 compared with 2012 levels to meet the needs of a growing population. The State of the World’s Land and Water Resources for Food and Agriculture 2025 report stated that this increase will place severe pressure on natural resources that are already under strain, particularly water, land and soil.

Between 1964 and 2023, global agricultural output tripled, but most of the gains came from intensifying the use of existing land rather than expanding farmland. Higher-yielding crops, wider irrigation networks and better technologies drove this surge. Irrigated land more than doubled during the period and by 2023 about 23 per cent of all croplands had irrigation systems. Farmland itself expanded by only 8 per cent over six decades, showing how much more is being extracted from the same limited land base.

The report stressed that expanding agricultural area is no longer a viable solution. Agriculture already accounts for 72 per cent of global freshwater withdrawals, a level expected to rise as demand increases. This dependence on water is contributing to worsening scarcity, prompted by groundwater overuse and seawater intrusion in coastal aquifers. The sector covers about a third of the world’s land area, giving it the largest impact on land resources among all economic sectors.

More than 1.6 billion hectares of land, over 10 per cent of Earth’s surface, have been degraded because of poor land management, and more than 60 per cent of this degradation lies on agricultural land. The report warned that this pressure is now eroding the very foundation of global agriculture. Declining soil health, shrinking water availability and the steady loss of productive land are weakening the sector’s ability to meet present needs and threatening its capacity to meet future demand.

Agricultural expansion continues to drive deforestation and the destruction of carbon-rich ecosystems such as peatlands, which deepens land degradation and reduces the resilience of food systems. The report, released on December 1, argued that future growth must come from improved practices rather than increased exploitation.

Under the theme of producing more and better, it outlined strategies that recognise the untapped potential of land and water resources. It stated that the world could support up to 10.3 billion people by 2085, when global population is projected to peak, but only if productivity gains are achieved through sustainable methods. This includes closing yield gaps, adopting resilient crop varieties and promoting resource-efficient practices tailored to local soil and water conditions. The report also highlighted integrated systems such as agroforestry, rotational grazing, forage improvement and rice-fish farming as models for more sustainable and productive agriculture.