Goldman Sachs Raises Oil Forecast to $90/Barrel Amid Gulf Supply Disruptions

April 27, 2026

Global investment bank Goldman Sachs has raised its crude oil price forecast to $90 per barrel, citing prolonged supply disruptions caused by restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz and slower-than-expected recovery in Gulf exports. The revised outlook has intensified concerns across global energy markets amid mounting geopolitical tensions in the region.

Supply Shock Behind Forecast Revision

Goldman Sachs said the upward revision reflects expectations that oil exports from the Persian Gulf will remain constrained for longer than previously anticipated due to continued disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz. The bank now expects tighter global supply conditions through the coming months.

Strait of Hormuz Remains Key Global Chokepoint

The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most critical oil transit routes, handling roughly one-fifth of global seaborne oil trade. Any disruption in the passage significantly impacts global supply chains and energy prices.

Oil Market Faces Growing Deficit

Analysts estimate that the market has shifted sharply into deficit as Gulf production losses and export delays continue. Global inventories are being drawn down rapidly, adding further upward pressure on crude prices.

Higher Prices Could Hit Import-Dependent Economies

The rise in oil prices is expected to put additional pressure on oil-importing nations, including major Asian economies, by increasing fuel costs, inflation risks and import bills if disruptions persist.

Upside Risks Remain if Crisis Deepens

Goldman Sachs warned that if the disruption lasts longer than expected or worsens, crude prices could rise well above current forecasts, with markets remaining highly sensitive to developments in the Gulf.