The Indian rupee touched a fresh record low of 92.94 against the US dollar on Thursday, depreciating by 30 paise. Elevated crude oil prices amid ongoing tensions in West Asia have added pressure on the currency. The rupee’s slide comes amid strong demand for dollars by importers and a firm greenback in global markets.
On Wednesday, the rupee had already hit 92.63 before opening Thursday at 92.42, trading in a narrow range initially before weakening further during the session. Despite periods of softening crude prices and strong risk appetite, persistent dollar demand has kept the domestic currency under pressure.
The geopolitical environment continues to affect market sentiment. Iran has warned of more severe retaliatory strikes if the US and Israel target its energy facilities again. On Wednesday, Israel struck Iran’s South Pars offshore natural gas field in the Gulf, which it shares with Qatar.
Following these strikes, Qatar reported fires and extensive damage at its liquefied natural gas facilities. Analysts say that such disruptions in global energy supply are likely to keep crude prices elevated, adding continued pressure on the rupee.
Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) have sold nearly ₹74,000 crore from the Indian stock market over the last 12 sessions, reflecting risk aversion amid the ongoing global uncertainty. These outflows have compounded the rupee’s depreciation, as the currency faces simultaneous pressure from external shocks and domestic demand for dollars.
Experts note that the macroeconomic backdrop remains challenging for the rupee. Crude oil prices are expected to stay high due to continued Middle East tensions, while persistent demand for dollars from importers further weighs on the currency. Overall, analysts anticipate that the rupee could face further downside in the near term if global oil prices and geopolitical risks remain elevated.
In response to rising oil prices, the US is considering emergency measures, including releasing crude from strategic reserves and easing restrictions on Iranian oil imports. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed that contingency plans have been prepared to address potential chokepoints in global oil flows, particularly around key maritime routes.
These measures aim to stabilize oil markets and prevent further price shocks in global energy supply, which directly influence currencies like the Indian rupee in emerging markets.
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