India’s climate apocalypse

November 22, 2025

A new peer-reviewed study published in PLOS Climate warns that India is moving toward a future defined by harsher heat, erratic rainfall, rapid glacier loss, stronger cyclones, and rising seas. The assessment, authored by leading climate scientists including current and former IPCC contributors, provides a post-AR6 update by drawing on the latest observational data and climate model projections. The findings indicate that climate risks are intensifying faster than previously estimated, sharpening the need for region-specific adaptation measures.

India has already warmed by nearly 0.9°C over the last decade compared with the early 20th century, the study notes. The hottest day of the year has risen by up to 2°C in parts of western and northeastern India since the 1950s. This trend is driving more frequent and severe heatwaves, with warm days increasing by 5 to 10 days every decade across much of the country. Climate models indicate an additional 1.2 to 1.3°C rise in average temperatures by mid-century under a moderate emissions pathway.

The southwest monsoon has also become more erratic. While average rainfall has declined in the Indo-Gangetic plains and the Northeast, extreme rainfall events have increased across central India and coastal Gujarat. Projections show a 6 to 8 per cent rise in all-India monsoon rainfall by mid-century, but with large regional variations that will complicate water management and farming.

The Indian Ocean is warming at 0.12°C per decade, one of the fastest rates globally. This is driving a steep rise in marine heatwaves, which could occur for up to 200 days each year by 2050. Such conditions threaten coral reefs, fisheries, and coastal livelihoods.

The Hindu Kush Himalaya is warming at more than twice the global average. Glaciers are losing mass at an accelerating pace, and the study projects a 30 to 50 per cent decline in glacier volume by 2100 even if global warming is held to 1.5 to 2°C. This will have major consequences for downstream water supplies.

The Arabian Sea is emerging as a hotspot for intense cyclones, with pre-monsoon storms becoming 40 per cent stronger in recent decades. Rising sea levels will further amplify the threat, with extreme sea-level events expected to occur annually by mid-century.

One of the study’s most concerning findings is the rise of “compound extremes,” where hazards such as heatwaves and droughts occur together or in quick sequence, overwhelming response systems. The authors call for targeted adaptation strategies, improved climate data, resilient infrastructure, and stronger early warning systems to tackle the growing risks.