A new era of the balance of power in West Asia – the global impact of the Iran-Israel conflict

It was not just a military attack, but a betrayal of a global diplomatic system, a serious challenge to nuclear transparency and the moral leadership of the West.

Preface: A Crisis Morning The morning of June 13, 2025 marked a decisive turning point in the history of global politics. Israel attacked Iran’s three major nuclear facilities – Natanz, Fordo, and Isfahan – simultaneously. It was not just a military attack, but a betrayal of a global diplomatic system, a serious challenge to nuclear transparency and the moral leadership of the West.

Military action or diplomatic message? Satellite images showed that the upper structures of Tanzania were badly damaged, wh i l e t h the underground Ford facility remained almost intact. Deaths of Iranian nuclear scientists and IRG strategic officers. Iran, rather than the expected outrage, showed strategic balance by launching a targeted attack on an Israel-backed military position in Erbil, Iraq. This response was evidence of the maturity that is expected of a responsible nation.

Washington’s Silence: Tacit Supporter Strategic Agreement?-Nothing was said beyond the White House’s usual appeal to “de-escalate tensions,” but experts and open-source analysts confirmed that the U.S.-made GBU-57 in the attack There was also a change in the position of the US satellites a few days before the attack, indicating that the US was directly involved in the targeting. Despite Iran’s continuance under the JCPOA (2015) and repeated affirmations by the International Energy Agency, US actions demonstrate that international standards are being applied today according to ‘strategic convenience’.

Iran’s Nuclear Program: A Political Story Contrary to prevailing media trends, Iran complied with the JCPOA for years. Until the U.S. unilaterally broke the agreement in 2018, the IAEA confirmed more than 15 times that Iran was complying with the agreement.In contrast, Israel has not signed the NPT to date, refuses to inspect its Dimona facility, and has an estimated 80–9 Yet Iran remains the focus of global criticism. Strategic polarization: no longer the west, but the east is the priority The attack decisively turned Iran’s tilt eastward.

Iran is now a full member of BRICS+, and its participation in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) is steadily increasing. China described the attack as an attack on sovereignty, while Russia vowed to further strengthen defense cooperation with Iran. The Arab Nation: Tacit Support or Strategic Consensus? Gulf countries like Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Bahrain made formal ‘peace appeals’, but flight data showed that Israeli planes were allowed to pass through their airspace. The Abraham Accords and growing Israeli-Gulf cooperation confirm that a secret alliance against Iran is now emerging in the strategy of these nations. India’s position: Pressure on strategic independence – India’s position is very sensitive in this whole incident. While the Ladakh border dispute with China and line tensions with Pakistan remain, a strategic partnership with both the US and Russia is a strategic necessity for India. India’s investments at the Chabahar port in Iran and the INSTC corridor – linking India, Russia, and Central Asia – could be affected by the attack.

If Iran is unstable, India’s regional grip could falter. This crisis raises a question: If even a nation’s transparency and international agreements do not guarantee its security, what is the future of the rest? Disarmament of International Rules The most worrying trend is that global norms are no longer being applied equally. The whole world was united when Russia attacked Ukraine, but the reaction after Israel’s attack on Iran was extremely strong. The principle of sovereignty enshrined in the UN Charter is now a matter of ‘strategic convenience.’ This loss of credibility is undermining confidence in global institutions and prompting the growth of parallel power centres. In the direction of the multipolar world Power centers are now emerging in the world instead of traditional Western leadership. Forums like China’s Belt and Road plan, Russia’s Eurasian Economic Union and BRICS+ are building the foundation of an alternative global order. They are also now looking for strategic options outside the West.

Diplomatic Real Death: The possibility of restoring the JCPOA is almost over. Iran is now politically stronger. It has grown support in the global South, and it is now becoming a symbol against a “Western hypocrisy”. This sends the message to small and medium powers: it is not enough to rely on agreements and inspections alone. Power and strategic balance are increasingly the guarantees of security in today’s world. Impact on BRICS and GCC Countries: New Polarity and Strategic Realignment The Iran-Israel conflict and the US silence on it have not only destabilized West Asia, but have also emerged as a political warning for the BRICS and GCC countries. BRICS countries such as China, Russia, India, South Africa and the recently added Iran are already searching for an alternative global order, free from Western domination. The leadership institutions are no longer impartial. Iran joined BRICS+ in January 2024, with the full support of Russia and China. Through this group, Iran is now not only a participant in global trade, energy exchange and financial mechanisms, but it has also been able to find alternatives to Western sanctions. But Russia and China described it as a direct attack on Iranian sovereignty.

This has stepped up security cooperation, alternative payment arrangements (such as the BRICS currency offer) and technological sharing within the BRICS. On the other hand, the members of the GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council) – Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman and Qatar – are now caught between two opposing poles. So on the other hand they also have to balance growing economic and security cooperation with China and Russia.

The Chinese-brokered diplomatic agreement between Saudi Arabia and Iran in 2023 had initiated new attempts at balancing in the GCC.

But the June 13 attacks and the GCC Reports of countries allowing Israeli aircraft over their airspace have undermined that sense of mediation. Countries such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE have now made formal applications for BRICS+ membership, and they have energy, This phenomenon confirms that traditional alliances are no longer so trusted and all countries want to protect their security and economic interests by adopting a multipolar strategy. It would therefore not be an exaggeration to say that the Israeli attack on Iran has become the trigger point of a new global polarity, where groups like the BRICS and GCC are not only trying to achieve a diplomatic balance, but the West’s “rules-based order.” are also moving towards building a separate parallel global structure.

Conclusion: A dangerous start The June 13 attack was not just a military event; This could be the beginning of the disintegration of the global system. Diplomacy has now become a political battlefield, not a guarantee of peace. India and other nations must now redefine their foreign policy – with self-reliance, caution and theoretical balance It is not from the ‘authoritarian nuclear nations’, but from the global systems that were responsible for stopping the war, and which are now themselves in crisis. This article is a warning of a new chapter in global politics – where rules change according to position, and justice is limited to strategic gain. For nations like India, this is the time for awareness policy, not passive reaction.