RSF’s victory signals a turning point in Sudan’s civil war 

October 28, 2025

In a potentially decisive development in Sudan’s civil war, the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) on Sunday claimed to have seized control of El-Fasher, the last major stronghold of the Sudanese military in the Darfur region. If confirmed, the capture effectively places all of Darfur under RSF control and divides Sudan into two zones of influence — the RSF controlling the west and southwest, and the national army holding the east and the capital, Khartoum.

The RSF announced the capture of El-Fasher hours after it said it had taken over the Sudanese Army’s 6th Division Headquarters, the final military base in the region that had not yet fallen. The group described the seizure as a “decisive victory.”

The civil war in Sudan began in April 2023 after the breakdown of a fragile power-sharing arrangement between the country’s military chief, General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, and RSF commander Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, better known as Hemedti. What started as a power struggle quickly evolved into one of the world’s deadliest conflicts.

According to United Nations estimates, the war has killed up to 150,000 people, injured hundreds of thousands, and displaced more than 14 million. Around 24 million people are now facing acute hunger, with 600,000 on the brink of famine. The UN has described the situation as the world’s worst humanitarian crisis.

El-Fasher, the capital of North Darfur and once a key humanitarian hub, has been under RSF siege since April 2024. Roughly 260,000 civilians are still believed to be trapped in the city, many of them suffering from food shortages and lack of medical aid. Aid groups have warned that the situation is deteriorating rapidly, with reports of mass displacement following the RSF’s claim of victory.

The fall of El-Fasher has heightened fears of large-scale atrocities in Darfur, where memories of earlier violence remain raw. The RSF and its allied Arab militias have already been accused of targeting non-Arab communities during the current conflict. Human rights groups estimate that more than 17,000 people have been killed in Darfur by RSF and allied forces through massacres and village attacks.

One of the worst incidents occurred in El-Geneina, where the United Nations reported that as many as 15,000 people were killed in a series of massacres. These attacks have drawn comparisons to the Darfur genocide of 2003–2005, when militias backed by then-dictator Omar al-Bashir killed an estimated 300,000 people, mostly from the Fur, Masalit, and Zaghawa ethnic groups. Those campaigns included mass killings, sexual violence, and widespread destruction of villages.

Human rights observers warn that the RSF’s takeover of El-Fasher could trigger a new wave of ethnic cleansing. Reports of sexual violence by RSF fighters, including rape, gang rape, forced marriages, and sexual slavery, have already emerged from across the conflict zones.

Following the RSF’s declaration, The New York Times reported that thousands of civilians were fleeing El-Fasher. Video footage circulating online appeared to show long convoys of residents leaving the city as RSF fighters advanced. Aid workers described scenes of panic, with families attempting to escape amid fears of retribution killings. The Times also reported that the RSF had circulated a list of Sudanese army officers it intended to capture in the city.

With the fall of El-Fasher, the RSF now controls the entirety of Darfur, a vast and resource-rich region that includes several gold mines. These mines have been a crucial financial lifeline for the group and are believed to have strong ties with business interests in the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Analysts say the RSF has previously supported UAE military operations in Yemen, aligning against Iran-backed Houthi forces, in exchange for funding and arms.

The military’s loss of Darfur marks a major setback for General al-Burhan and underscores the country’s growing fragmentation. As Sudan’s two rival forces dig in, the prospect of reunification appears increasingly remote. For the millions of Sudanese civilians caught in the middle, the fall of El-Fasher may signal the beginning of an even deeper humanitarian catastrophe.