Scorching summers, growing crisis 

September 25, 2025

Europe has faced a deadly trio of scorching summers between 2022 and 2024, with new research estimating over 180,000 heat-related deaths across the continent. The study, published in Nature Medicine, highlights the growing toll of rising temperatures, particularly during the record-breaking summer of 2024.

Between June and September 2024, Europe recorded an estimated 62,775 heat-related deaths, a 23 per cent increase compared with 2023, when the death toll stood at 50,798. Although 2024 surpassed 2022 as the hottest summer on record, with global mean surface temperatures exceeding pre-industrial levels by more than 1.5°C, mortality in 2022 was higher at 67,873. Researchers attribute this to the geographical distribution of extreme heat, which in 2022 struck densely populated regions with high vulnerability, including Spain, Italy, and France.

Italy consistently recorded the highest number of heat-related deaths across all three summers: 18,801 in 2022, 13,790 in 2023, and 19,038 in 2024. Spain and Germany followed in second and third place. Several countries, including Greece, Romania, Bulgaria, Austria, Czechia, Cyprus, and Montenegro, experienced a steady rise in heat-related mortality from 2022 to 2024. South-eastern Europe reported the highest summer deaths per million population, with Greece at 574, Bulgaria 530, Serbia 379, and Croatia 326.

Women and the elderly were disproportionately affected. The 2024 study indicates that women accounted for the majority of heat-related deaths, and individuals over 75 faced mortality rates 323 per cent higher than other age groups combined. Researchers suggest that age distribution, physiological differences, and sociocultural factors contribute to these disparities. Women’s longer life expectancy and the vulnerability of older adults to heat stress play a key role in the observed patterns.

Tomáš Janoš, lead researcher from ISGlobal, Barcelona, and RECETOX, Masaryk University, Brno, said Europe is warming at twice the global average, making it the fastest-warming continent. The Mediterranean basin and south-eastern regions are emerging as major climate change hotspots, with projections indicating substantial rises in heat-related mortality through the 21st century.

The researchers used daily temperature records and mortality data from 2015-19 to build epidemiological models, which were combined with observed and forecasted temperatures, as well as weekly mortality data, to estimate deaths from 2022 to 2024.

The study calls for stronger adaptation strategies, including the development of impact-based, continental-wide heat-health early warning systems to protect vulnerable populations and reduce the mounting human cost of Europe’s rising temperatures.