Tropical storm Nokaen raises lahar risk near Philippines’ Mayon volcano

January 16, 2026

Manila: The first tropical cyclone of this year, tropical storm Nokaen, locally named Ada, may trigger lahars and muddy streamflows around Mayon Volcano on Luzon island, authorities said on Friday. The state weather bureau, PAGASA, said Nokaen is packing maximum sustained winds of 65 kilometres per hour near the centre, with gusts of up to 80 kilometres per hour. The storm is moving slowly northward over the Philippine Sea, east of the Eastern Visayas in central Philippines.

In its tropical cyclone advisory issued Friday, PAGASA said Nokaen is expected to affect the eastern coast of southern Luzon this weekend.

Heavy Rainfall Expected Over Southern Luzon

Due to its projected track, the storm could bring heavy to intense rainfall of 100 to 200 millimetres, particularly over areas surrounding Mayon Volcano in Albay province. Weather officials warned that the slow movement of the system may prolong rainfall, increasing the risk of flooding and landslides in vulnerable areas.

Phivolcs Warns of Lahar and Volcanic Sediment Flows

The Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (Phivolcs) said intense rainfall from the storm could trigger volcanic sediment flows or lahars in rivers and drainage channels around the volcano, which has been restive since January 1.

“Heavy to intense rainfall may generate syn-eruption lahars on major channels draining the southern to eastern slopes of Mayon Volcano by incorporating loose material from new pyroclastic density current deposits of its ongoing eruption,” Phivolcs said in an advisory. It also warned that hot lahars could cause scalding upon contact, potentially leading to severe and life-threatening injuries.

Phivolcs further cautioned that older, erodible eruption deposits on the southwestern slopes of Mayon could be remobilised as non-eruption lahars, threatening downstream communities through inundation, boulder impacts, burial and washout, even reaching coastal areas off the volcano’s eastern slopes.

Residents on Alert as Conditions Worsen

In Albay province, thousands of residents living near Mayon’s slopes have already been displaced by ongoing volcanic activity. Officials warned that heavy rains from Nokaen could worsen conditions in evacuation centres and complicate emergency response efforts.

Residents in affected and nearby areas were urged to take necessary precautions and remain alert for further advisories as tropical storm Nokaen continues to move northward.