US-Iran to Impact Indian Economy

September 5, 2026

~Abhishek Vij

There was hope that the lingering dispute over the Strait of Hormuz between the US and Iran would be resolved and both nations would agree to a ceasefire. However, those driven by a conflict of arrogance and self-interest rarely shy away from actual warfare. War has flared up once again between the US and Iran. Trump continues to make bold claims of victory at every opportunity. Recently, the US attacked a wedding ceremony in Sirik, Iran, and also launched missile and drone strikes on three other locations: Khuzestan, Qeshm Island, and Bandar Abbas. According to Iran, 19 people have died and 68 have been injured in these attacks so far.

There are unconfirmed reports regarding the deaths of Iranian commanders. Meanwhile, retaliating fiercely, Iran claimed to have destroyed a US military base in eastern Jordan using drones and missiles. Iran asserts that it has killed a large number of US troops, whereas the US maintains that not a single soldier was killed in the attacks, although the airbase did sustain some damage. It appears that a war of misinformation is running parallel to the strategic military conflict.

The US President is proclaiming victory; Trump has even stated that the Strait of Hormuz will be renamed the “Trump Strait.” Meanwhile, Israel is also preparing to attack Iran, having deployed Patriot missiles along the Iranian border aimed at Iranian targets. Russia and China are indirectly backing Iran, assisting it in its efforts to develop supersonic cruise missiles.

Despite the scenes of devastation, there has been no de-escalation in the belligerent stance of the warring parties. However, a significant change has occurred in the price of crude oil, which has now reached $95.7 per barrel. Crude oil prices have risen by 22.5 percent in less than a month. Naturally, this impacts countries like India. The rising cost of crude oil affects Indian markets, but an even greater impact is felt by the more than ten million Indians working in Gulf countries.

Since the war broke out on February 28, one million Indians have already returned. If the conflict drags on, more Indians will return, and employment opportunities for our people in the Gulf region will diminish. The flow of crude oil through the Strait of Hormuz has been disrupted.

Supplies of natural gas from Qatar, Bahrain, and the UAE have dwindled, and our exports have stalled. Exports of engineering products have declined, while shipments of Basmati rice, bananas, coconuts, and tea leaves have dropped by as much as 50 percent. Under these circumstances, India cannot claim to be unaffected. Energy supplies have also been curtailed. It is in India’s best interest to intensify efforts to halt this war, thereby preventing a blow to its economy and averting a surge in inflation and unemployment.

One thing that defies comprehension is how major nations can proclaim themselves as champions of peace. Everyone heard the idealistic speeches delivered by Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping at the recent Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit; yet, simultaneously, these nations are covertly aiding Iran in its confrontation with the United States. The common man fails to grasp how such duplicitous policies contribute to the global good.