War Likely to Be Protracted

March 7, 2026

Abhishek Vij

When US and Israel jointly launched strike against Iran a week back, the United States believed that Iran would be a 4-5 day victory. When Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, his family, and associates were killed, this belief became even stronger: Iran would be defeated in 5-6 days.

The United States hoped that disgruntled young Iranians would rise to its defense and turn the tide of the war. But that didn’t happen. After Khamenei’s death, millions of Iranians took to the streets, chanting, “We will take revenge,” and the war’s tenor changed.

The way Iran has launched attacks, first with old missiles and now with its own Fateh missiles, clearly indicates that the war will drag on. Trump had been claiming that they were prepared for 4-5 weeks. Iran’s diplomatic representative stated that they were ready for dialogue, but it should be done with dignity. However, amid the increasing explosions of war, this voice went unheeded. Trump says he stands guard for peace for the world.

This war is being waged to prevent a rebellious country like Iran from becoming a nuclear power. Military experts say the US may have misjudged Iran’s strength. It is said that Iran has almost developed a nuclear bomb, but it also possesses a large stockpile of dirty bombs (chemical bombs). Some countries are worried about what will happen to the world if Iran dares to use a dirty bomb. Dirty bombs are a step below nuclear bombs. Wherever they fall, they deplete oxygen.

People begin to die, and cities have to be evacuated to avoid devastation. Even then, dirty bombs leave a legacy of serious ills in the region.

A problem for US military experts is that Iran produces ballistic missiles at a very rapid pace. It produces up to 100 missiles a month, while the US intercepts only 5-7. This means that 92-93 missiles could hit US bases.Khamenei’s son has been elected the next Supreme Leader. He doesn’t seem to be planning to back down. Now the question is how long the fighting will continue. The US has stated that it has cleared Iranian airspace for flights, but flights have still not resumed.The Homurs, a cargo route for oil containers, has been secured according to the US, but no one dares to send containers through it.Even if oil containers are sent, their insurance costs will be exorbitant.

This means that the world will receive significantly less oil and gas, while costs will increase. In just six days, the price of crude oil has risen from Rs 72 to Rs 82 per barrel. India can currently withstand a 40-45 day oil and gas shortage, but how long can India, which imports 85 percent of its oil and gas needs, endure? The only solution to this brutal situation is to reach a quick, respectable agreement on terms, but the US doesn’t seem inclined to do so at this time, so the war will continue for the time being.