Why Bangladesh’s 2026 polls matter to India 

December 12, 2025

The Bangladesh Election Commission is preparing to announce the schedule for the next national elections on Thursday. The vote, expected in February 2026, will take place against the backdrop of an extraordinary political transformation set off by the student-led uprising of 2024 that forced Sheikh Hasina from power after more than fifteen years in office. The upheaval has produced a political climate unlike anything Bangladesh has experienced since independence, and the implications for India are considerable given the country’s importance to regional security, trade, and connectivity.

The crisis that toppled the Hasina government began in mid-2024 with protests over recruitment rules for government jobs. The agitation quickly expanded into a nationwide campaign demanding major political change. Through the summer, demonstrations intensified and led to violent clashes between protesters and security forces. By August, the state machinery struggled to contain the unrest. On 5 August 2024, Hasina stepped down and left the country. Hundreds of people were killed and thousands injured during the confrontation.

After her departure, an interim administration was established to oversee daily governance and prepare for fresh elections. Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus was appointed to lead the transitional set-up, joined by student leaders and advisers who had emerged during the protests. The interim government introduced a wide set of reforms summarised in a document called the July Charter. The charter proposes curbing the concentration of executive power, strengthening the autonomy of the judiciary and the Election Commission, and limiting the ability of law-enforcement agencies to target political opponents. A national referendum on these reforms is expected to run alongside the parliamentary election.

During this period, the Awami League was barred from contesting the next general election. Amendments to anti-terror laws and subsequent court rulings led to the suspension of the party’s registration and restrictions on its activities. This effectively removed from contention the only political party that maintained consistently strong ties with India for more than a decade. Hasina, who fled to India during the turmoil, was later convicted in absentia by the International Crimes Tribunal in November 2025 for crimes against humanity and sentenced to death. Her continued stay in India has become a sensitive issue in bilateral relations.

India is watching developments closely due to its deep security and economic links with Bangladesh. The country serves as India’s main land bridge to its northeastern states. Transport routes through Bangladeshi territory ease access to Assam, Tripura, Meghalaya, and Mizoram by reducing dependence on the narrow Siliguri Corridor. Trade ties are also significant, with bilateral exchanges exceeding 15 billion dollars and Bangladesh serving as India’s largest market in South Asia. Medical tourism, rail and road links, and inland waterways further reinforce economic integration.

Bangladesh also remains a key partner for India’s Act East policy and regional initiatives such as BIMSTEC. Security cooperation had strengthened notably under Hasina. Dhaka dismantled militant camps linked to insurgent groups from India’s Northeast and handed over several wanted leaders. The 2013 Extradition Treaty and the 2015 Land Boundary Agreement helped curb networks involved in criminal and militant activity. Since Hasina’s exit, however, analysts have warned of renewed attempts by insurgent and extremist groups to regroup. There are reports of attempted infiltration, rising Islamist influence, and possible efforts by external actors, including ISI operatives, to exploit the political shift.

China’s growing role in Bangladesh is another concern for India. More than 10 billion dollars in Chinese investments fund major infrastructure projects. Yunus has described this engagement as vital for Bangladesh’s development. Reports of potential Chinese involvement in reviving the Lalmonirhat Airbase near the Siliguri Corridor have heightened India’s anxieties. The interim government’s comments on regional connectivity have also caused friction, prompting India to suspend certain transshipment facilities crucial to Bangladesh’s garment exports.

Connectivity projects that had progressed in recent years have slowed. The upgrade of the Ashuganj Inland Container Port remains stalled, and the Khulna-Mongla rail link has yet to begin commercial operations. Disruptions at land ports along the border have affected trade and local economies in India’s Northeast.

With the Awami League sidelined, the 2026 election is expected to be contested mainly by the Bangladesh Nationalist Party, Jamaat-e-Islami, and the National Citizen Party. The BNP, the Awami League’s traditional rival, has spent the past year rebuilding its organisation. The party says the upcoming vote is a chance to restore competitive politics and has presented candidate lists for 237 constituencies, signalling its intention to fight the election fully.