Will America and Iran reach Agreement Now?

May 9, 2026

The slight rise in the US and Indian stock markets and the slight decline in the international price of crude oil over the past day or so may indicate that the US now wants to withdraw from the Gulf War. The US has withdrawn its Project Freedom initiative, which sought to ensure safe passage for cargo containers through Hormuz. Trump stated that the blockade of Hormuz would continue, but also stated that he was engaging in meaningful talks with Iran through his emissary, Pakistan. The two sides are close to a 14-point agreement. However, Iran’s response has been less than encouraging, and the movement of containers through the Strait of Hormuz has not been fully restored. Iran also maintains that it will not yield an inch on the issue of uranium enrichment. On the other hand, the US believes that if Iran does not agree to a compromise after negotiations in the next few days, it will be subjected to another devastating attack. According to the US, Iran’s navy has been destroyed and its fighting capability crippled. It is understood that, under the terms of the agreement, the US will lift the ban on Iran’s frozen assets, and in return, Iran will guarantee a five-year uranium enrichment guarantee. However, the US is demanding this guarantee for 15 years. Perhaps a deal could be reached on terms of 10-12 years. Another issue is who should keep the enriched uranium stockpile to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear bomb. The US wants to keep it, but Iran is unwilling to accept this condition. Both sides are making different claims regarding the agreement. The Strait of Hormuz has still not opened. Cargo containers are stuck in the Persian Gulf. The world wishes for this passage to open as soon as possible so that ships loaded with crude oil and natural gas can reach their destinations. But so far, only talks have taken place; the passage has not been opened. China, which buys 90 percent of its crude oil needs from Iran, has also intervened. China has clearly stated that this war must end. A decisive decision could still be reached in Islamabad or Geneva. The problem with the talks is that both sides talk about compromise but are unwilling to show flexibility. Nevertheless, expect the two sides to reach a solution within 24 or 48 hours.