Will Trump’s Tariff War Push India Closer to China and Russia?

August 4, 2025

Donald Trump’s recent announcement of a 25% tariff on Indian goods, plus an unspecified “penalty” for India’s trade with Russia, has sparked heated debate. Labeling India a “friend” but slamming its high tariffs and “obnoxious” trade barriers, Trump’s Truth Social posts on July 30, 2025, also criticized India’s purchase of Russian oil and weapons amid the Ukraine war.

With trade talks stalled and a US Senate bill proposing 500% tariffs on nations trading with Russia, will this push India closer to China and Russia? Here we know

India’s Strategic Balancing Act

India has long maintained a delicate balance in global relations:

• Non-Alignment Roots: Since the Cold War, India’s non-aligned policy has fostered ties with both Western powers and Russia, avoiding full alignment with any bloc.
• Russia Ties: Russia remains India’s top arms supplier, with over 60% of its military equipment being Russian-made. Since 2022, Russia has also become India’s largest oil supplier, accounting for over a third of its crude imports due to discounted prices post-Ukraine invasion.
• China Relations: Despite border tensions, India and China share economic ties through BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, though trust remains low.
• US Partnership: India is a key US ally in the Quad (with Japan and Australia) to counter China. Bilateral trade reached $190 billion in 2024, with a goal to hit $500 billion by 2030.

Trump’s Tariff Shock

On July 30, 2025, Trump announced a 25% tariff on Indian goods starting August 1, citing a $45.8 billion US trade deficit and India’s high tariffs (12% trade-weighted average vs. US’s 2.2%).

He also threatened a penalty for India’s Russian oil and arms purchases, calling them enablers of Moscow’s war in Ukraine.

A proposed US Senate bill, backed by Trump, could impose up to 500% tariffs on countries like India and China for trading with Russia.

• Economic Impact: The tariffs could hit Indian exports like pharmaceuticals and textiles, potentially favoring competitors like Vietnam or Bangladesh. Indian consumers may face higher oil prices if Russian imports are disrupted.
• Diplomatic Strain: US Secretary of State Marco Rubio called India’s Russian oil purchases a “point of irritation,” despite acknowledging India’s energy needs.

India’s Response

India’s Commerce Ministry is observing the tariffs’ implications, emphasizing a commitment to a “fair” trade deal.

Petroleum Minister Hardeep Singh Puri dismissed concerns, noting India imports from 40 countries and complies with international norms. Indian officials argue that Russian oil purchases stabilize global prices, benefiting all.

Will India Pivot to China and Russia?

• Unlikely Full Pivot: India’s rivalry with China and strategic US ties make a complete shift unlikely. The Quad and US defense deals are critical for countering China.
• Strengthened BRICS Ties: Tariffs may push India to deepen economic cooperation with Russia and China via BRICS, especially for energy and trade.
• Neutral Stance: India’s non-alignment policy will likely persist, balancing Russian oil imports with US negotiations.

What’s Next?

Trump’s August 7 executive order extended tariffs to 69 countries, including India, effective August 7. With no trade deal finalized, India faces economic and diplomatic challenges. While closer BRICS ties are possible, India’s strategic interests and US partnership will likely prevent a full alignment with China and Russia.